Deshaun Watsons fantasy impact, the Mike White upgrade and one question for each team that played -

This series answers one question for each team following the Week 12 games (usually looking ahead and ‘what does this mean?’). It uses advanced metrics, analytics, game tape reviews, statistical trends, and myriad other elements. It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article and reviewed in greater detail at www.TheFootballScientist.com.

(Note: The EPA metrics detailed below are per TruMedia. Other advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are in full PPR environments. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the end of the Sunday night games.)

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How close is Marquise Brown to must-start status?

Brown’s returned was welcomed by his fantasy managers, but those managers might have a bit of trepidation after he posted a season-low 10.6 points against the Chargers.

Those fears are unfounded, as evidenced by Arizona’s receiver metrics in that game.

Brown led the team in routes, targets, and receptions and was second in receiving yards. He also led the team in vertical routes but only saw two targets and had zero receptions at that level. This should improve as Brown gets his timing down with Kyler Murray on those throws, so look for him to return to must-start status following the Cardinals Week 13 bye.

Can Tyler Allgeier be dropped?

Allgeier has three straight games with a double-digit point total back in Weeks 7-9, but since then he has tallied a total of 16.1 points in the past three weeks, with 3.3, 7.4, and 5.4 points in those games, respectively. He also ranks 40th out of 44 backs with 100+ scrimmage plays in fantasy points per scrimmage play this season, so a low scoring volume is not a recent anomaly.

Having noted this, the Falcons have green-rated rush defense matchups in Weeks 15 and 17. That offers Allgeier the potential to get back to the double-digit scoring level during the fantasy playoffs, so only drop him in leagues where he cannot be stashed until that time.

Is it time to drop Kenyan Drake?

Drake’s 0.2 points strongly suggests he should be dropped, but let’s go a bit deeper into the numbers and see what the Ravens running back snap counts had to say about it.

Drake got next to zero rush snaps, but he did post solid pass snap numbers and was second in routes run.

Those figures aren’t enough to keep him on rosters in anything outside of deep leagues, but once one takes Edwards’ injury history into account, it’s probably still a good idea to keep Drake around in deep leagues in the event The Gus Bus blows a tire.

The Gus Bus is back 😎 pic.twitter.com/kbqYC9dV82

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 27, 2022

Was a 22.3-point performance against Detroit a sign of things to come for Isaiah McKenzie?

Fantasy managers are always looking to get some stock in the Buffalo offense and McKenzie may offer such an opportunity after having a fantastic Thanksgiving Day against the Lions inconsistent secondary.

The problem in claiming McKenzie is that the Bills’ next two opponents are the Patriots in the Week 13 Thursday Night Football game and then a Week 14 divisional showdown against the Jets. New England and New York rank second and third, respectively, in receiving points allowed per game since Week 9, so McKenzie will be a very risk flex start prospect in those matchups.

Things improve after that, as Buffalo’s final three opponents rank between 14th and 20th in that category, but that means this waiver claim is one that likely won’t generate a usable start until the playoffs.

Is D’Onta Foreman a good trade low candidate in ESPN leagues?

Let’s start this by noting that although the trade deadline in many leagues has already passed, it is still open until November 30th at 12 PM EST in ESPN leagues and many custom leagues may also have trade deadlines open until this week or later. With that caveat, let’s now look at Foreman’s potential as a trade low candidate.

Making a pitch for Foreman should not be difficult, as his 11.3 points against Denver in Week 12 were his lowest with a large volume rush attempt since Foreman started getting large workload volumes in Week 7. The Panthers are also on a bye in Week 13, so he will have zero start value this week.

As far as whether Foreman will be worth the deal, Carolina has green-rated rush defenses on the schedule in Weeks 14 and 16. For fantasy managers who can keep the trade cost reasonable, Foreman may provide the type of scoring upgrade that can clinch a playoff berth and/or win a playoff game.

Is Chase Claypool droppable?

It seems like an easy call, as Claypool has scored only 15.7 points in his four games in Chicago. He obviously should be kept in dynasty leagues, but the only possible reason to consider keeping him in redraft leagues is that Chicago has green-rated cornerback matchups against slot receivers in three of the last five weeks (the Bears are on a bye in Week 14).

That might result in some upside if Chicago decided to use Claypool in the slot, as he got most of his work out of the slot in Pittsburgh, but the Bears have sent him on routes from the slot only nine times in four games. It’s possible that will change and justifies possibly keeping him on very deep rosters, but otherwise it’s time to ditch Claypool from the vast majority of the 59 percent of leagues he is still rostered in.

Should fantasy managers continue to roster Samaje Perine if Joe Mixon is slated to return this week?

The primary factor to remember regarding Mixon is that he ranks fourth among running backs in games with 20+ scrimmage plays since 2017. That is a lot of wear and has continued this year, as he ranks tied for fifth in games of that caliber this season.

The Bengals are one of the hottest teams in the league and thus planning on making a playoff run, and since Perine has shown them that he can help carry the power rushing workload, it will be a surprise to see Cincinnati go back to using Mixon as a pure bell cow. This should provide Perine with improved fantasy value even if Mixon remains healthy, so roster Perine in all leagues and give him flex start consideration in many leagues.

What kind of an upgrade in passing production should fantasy managers expect from Cleveland pass catchers with the upgrade to Deshaun Watson?

Let’s begin by pointing out that the key to Watson’s passing value is on vertical throws, so most of the scoring impact the Browns pass catchers may see will occur at this level.

Now let’s make a benchmark based on Jacoby Brissett’s vertical pass numbers. This year Brissett has averaged 11.0 yards per attempt (YPA) and posted a 3.6 percent touchdown per attempt pace at that depth level. Those are upper half of the league figures for the most part and speak well to Brissett’s passing skills.

In his Houston career, Watson posted a 12.5 vertical YPA and 9.4 percent touchdown per attempt pace.

Brissett ranks tied for 10th in the league with 10.1 vertical attempts per game. Watson posted a 10.7 vertical attempts per game pace in his Houston tenure, with that number increasing to 12.3 vertical attempts in 2020.

This suggests that Watson may throw 1-2 more vertical passes per game and will add roughly 15 additional vertical passing yards to the mix. The big impact could be on touchdowns, as Watson finds the end zone about three times as often per vertical attempt as Brissett, but given the vertical passing pace, Watson will probably throw about three more vertical touchdowns than Brissett would have paced for over these last five games.

That’s it. About 15 yards per game and an additional touchdown on three occasions. It’s a benefit, to be sure, but if these numbers hold up, it means Watson will help the Browns receivers become more productive on downfield aerials, but he won’t be a panacea. Add it up and it means Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku will have marginally better value in this span, with Cooper being the most likely to benefit.

Will fantasy managers be able to count on Michael Gallup from here on out?

Gallup’s fantasy managers have been waiting for Gallup to finally hit his stride and they are hopeful that a season high 11.3 points against the Giants on Thanksgiving Day signals that stride has been hit.

It’s possible that is the case, but Gallup has three red-rated cornerbacks on his schedule over the last five weeks of the fantasy season. There is one green-rated matchup in Week 17 against a Tennessee secondary that has been hit or miss this year, but in general the matchup slate suggests that the point spike against the Giants may be a one-time thing.

Denver Broncos

Can Russell Wilson be dropped now?

The better question may be why is Wilson still rostered in 51.6 percent of leagues? He ranks 25th in quarterback points per game with a meager 13.6 average, but he hasn’t posted more than 14.24 points in a contest since Week 4 and has been in single-digit territory on two occasions in that span.

He can be justified as a dynasty keep candidate, a depth option in two-QB leagues, and possibly as a stream start candidate in Week 15 when the Broncos face a Cardinals defense that ranks 31st in fantasy pass points allowed per game since Week 9, but outside of that Wilson should be dropped in all formats.

Detroit Lions

Should fantasy managers in redraft leagues put a flyer in on Jameson Williams for late season production?

Williams is on track to land on the active roster soon, so to help answer this question, let’s take a look at the Lions receivers metrics from the Thanksgiving Day game against Buffalo.

This indicates that Detroit prefers going with a locked in three wide receiver set. If Williams comes in healthy and proves that he is good to go, it is very possible that he will unseat Raymond and take over many (or maybe all) of those 32 routes. That caliber of playing time upside is worth investing in for many league formats, so Williams is a good roster stash in deeper leagues.

Should fantasy managers have more faith in AJ Dillon after his 17.8 points against Philadelphia?

One would sure like to think so, as Dillon has been one of the most frustrating fantasy running backs this year, as his 0.63 points per scrimmage play ranks 41st out of 44 running backs with 100+ scrimmage plays this year.

There is also potential upside in the Week 13 and Week 17 matchups against Chicago and Minnesota, as both of those clubs rate as green-rated rush defenses.

Those matchups could make Dillon a flex start candidate in those contests, but when someone has a season-long scoring drought as he has, it’s best to go with the glut of evidence and still rate him as a sit candidate in other situations.

Is Nico Collins once again worthy of a roster spot?

Collins has been a steady performer of late, as he has three straight games with 9.8 points and ranks 36th among wide receivers in points per game in that span.

That could make him a viable high floor flex option in future weeks, but he is due to face red-rated cornerbacks in three of the next four weeks. It’s possible those cornerbacks move around to face Brandin Cooks in coverage some or most of the time, but even if that happens, the potential for a subpar game is too risky to trust Collins outside of flex starts in deep leagues.

Does Jelani Woods have spot-start potential for the stretch run and playoffs?

Woods came out of nowhere against the Steelers on Monday night by catching eight passes for 98 yards, posting 17.8 points. He’s not likely to have much fantasy value in a red-rated tight end coverage matchup next week against Dallas, and he’ll be on the bench while on a bye in Week 14, but the Colts have two yellow-rated and one green-rated matchup in Weeks 15-17. That means he might be a playoff roster stash in deeper leagues given the dearth of quality tight ends this season.

Is Zay Jones a must-add on the waiver wire this week?

Jones racked up a career high 27.5 points against the Ravens in Week 12, but it’s not the first quality game he has posted this year, as he had 14.8 points against Kansas City in Week 10 and has five games this year with 10+ points.

Despite this fairly consistent success, Jones is rostered in only 30.9 percent of leagues. He does have three consecutive red-rated cornerback matchups in Weeks 15-17, but has a Week 13 matchup against Detroit and a favorable matchup in Week 14 against a Titans secondary that ranks 31st in receiving points allowed per game since Week 9.

Add those factors up and Jones should be at or near the top of waiver wire picks this week and belongs in starting lineups over the next two weeks at the very least.

Kansas City Chiefs

Why isn’t Isiah Pacheco rostered in more leagues?

It’s clear that fantasy managers weren’t impressed when Pacheco posted 31 combined carries in Weeks 10-11, as his roster rate moved up to only 59.3 percent despite his being the lead back in one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Fantasy managers may had visions of Clyde Edwards-Helaire going through their minds and thus were thinking that Pacheco would continue down the empty calorie fantasy scoring path he was traveling in Weeks 10 & 11 when he posted 16.9 points in that two-game span, but let’s not forget that CEH racked up four straight games with 14.9 points to start the year.

Pacheco doesn’t have Edwards-Helaire’s pass catching skills, so he may not be quite as consistent of a point scorer, but he should be rostered in nearly 100 percent of leagues, as he has the capacity to help teams win games at this crucial time of year.

Is Josh Jacobs a trade high candidate in ESPN leagues?

As noted earlier, ESPN leagues have a trade deadline of 12 noon on November 30.

That date is key because the Raiders have a fantastic matchup against the green-rated rush defense of the Chargers in Week 13. That is the last favorable matchup on the Las Vegas slate, as there are four straight red-rated rush defense matchups that follow that contest.

If the trade deadline was next week, the suggestion would be to keep Jacobs around for one more week and then try to land an impact player with a better rest of season schedule then. Since that deadline is this week, the suggestion is to try to move Jacobs for a first-tier player (e.g., high-end QB1, RB1, or WR1) and thus avoid the potential pitfall of that terrible matchup stretch.

Los Angeles Chargers

Will Gerald Everett ever return to his early season TE1 status?

Everett had a great start to the season, but since Week 6 he ranks 21st in tight end points per game. That number actually gives him the benefit of the doubt, because if one moves back to Week 5, Everett drops to 26th in points per game.

That’s bad enough but when one notes that the Chargers have faced green-rated tight end coverage matchups four times since Week 7, it shows that he hasn’t been able to post starter-caliber numbers even when the matchups are favorable.

That’s too bad, as Los Angeles faces only two green-rated, two yellow-rated, and only one red-rated matchup in the last five games of the fantasy season. It likely won’t be enough to return Everett to TE1 form, so he should stay on most fantasy benches.

Is there anything salvageable fantasy-wise from this train wreck of a roster?

Only one player scored 10+ points in the Week 12 matchup against the Chiefs, that being Van Jefferson, who tallied 11.9 points.

Jefferson may be the only viable flex start option on this club at the moment, as he is due to face green-rated cornerback matchups in each of the next three weeks. Truth be told, he might not do much better than the 11.9-point total he scored this week, and his floor could be lower than that, but he is a potentially salvageable part of this wreckage.

Has the Dolphins D/ST reached starter status?

At first glance it certainly might seem like it, as this platoon has scored 8+ points in four of the past five weeks.

At second glance, those numbers don’t hold up as well, as Miami’s opponents in those four games with 8+ points were Pittsburgh, Chicago, Cleveland, and Houston.

Now consider that Miami’s next three foes are San Francisco, the Chargers, and Buffalo, with all of those games on the road.

There is no way fantasy managers should want to rely on a D/ST with that type of schedule. Since the Dolphins are rostered in 61.5 percent of leagues, there are a lot of fantasy managers who will need to consider replacement options on the waiver wire this week.

Minnesota Vikings

Can T.J. Hockenson keep this impressive scoring streak going?

Hockenson ranks fifth in tight end points per game since he arrived in Minnesota in Week 9. The Vikings upcoming tight end coverage schedule is favorable, as it contains two green-rated, two yellow-rated, and one red-rated coverage matchup, so that should not slow Hockenson from keeping up at this current pace.

The only concern is durability. Hockenson has 52 catches on the year and is averaging 6.5 receptions per game in Minnesota. Pro-rate those together over the rest of the season and it equals 82 receptions.

Hockenson’s single-season career high in catches at the NFL level is 68 in 2020 and he had only 74 career receptions in his two years at Iowa. The 82 mark is not that much higher than 68, so it’s probable that Hockenson is capable of holding up under the larger workload volume, but there is a chance he could hit the wall late in the year.

New England Patriots

Can the spiked value of Patriots players in Week 12 serve as a positive omen moving forward?

New England had five players post a double-digit point total in the Week 12 matchup against Minnesota. That could serve as a springboard to greater performance, but before getting too fired up about this spike, consider that the Vikings have allowed more fantasy points per game over the past four weeks than any team in the league.

That indicates just how much the matchup may have contributed to things, but then it’s also worth pointing out that the Patriots next three opponents (Buffalo, Arizona, and Las Vegas) all rank between 24th and 26th in fantasy points allowed per game since Week 9.

What this suggests is that New England’s improved production may be at least somewhat sustainable. It might make Jakobi Meyers an every week flex candidate and could make DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, or Kendrick Bourne potential roster candidates at wideout, and vaults Mac Jones into the QB2 conversation.

Is it time to bench Alvin Kamara?

This series doesn’t normally cover the same subject on a team for two consecutive weeks, but after Kamara posted his third game with fewer than 10 points in the past four weeks, it’s clear he is a worthy exception.

As noted last week, the biggest issue is that Kamara has been asked to carry a much larger workload over the past two years than he did in the previous three years. This seems to have finally caught up to him but facing a San Francisco defense that ranks second in fantasy points allowed per game since Week 9 didn’t help matters, either.

The schedule isn’t as unfavorable in Week 13, but the Buccaneers defense has stepped up of late and Tampa Bay ranks 12th in fantasy points allowed per game since Week 9. New Orleans then has a bye in Week 14 and faces an Atlanta defense in Week 15 that is 11th in points allowed over the past month.

Put this all together and Kamara might be bench material in many shallow leagues for the foreseeable future.

New York Giants

Have we seen enough from Richie James to put him on rosters?

James has posted 28.9 points over the past two weeks combined, so he’s probably at roster-worthy level, but let’s look at the Giants wide receiver metrics in Weeks 11-12 to find out for sure.

Robinson was placed on injured reserve this past week, so it’s clear that James has taken Robinson’s place as a high-volume route runner and pass catcher in this lineup. He should be a solid flex candidate in many leagues and should be valued quite high in waiver picks this week.

New York Jets

Does Mike White’s performance upgrade all Jets players?

The great crew at NFL Research may have answered this question when they noted via Twitter that Garrett Wilson scored two touchdowns from White in Week 12 and two touchdowns from Joe Flacco in Week 2 and had zero from Zach Wilson in the seven games they played in together.

Garrett Wilson has scored 2 touchdowns in Week 12 to raise his rookie total to 4 on the season …

From Joe Flacco: 2 rec TD (in Week 2)
From Mike White: 2 rec TD (in Week 12)
From Zach Wilson: 0 rec TD (in 7 games)#TakeFlight @nyjets

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 27, 2022

This is just one of multiple instances of White upgrading the fantasy scoring totals of his teammates, and that trend should continue with a Week 13 matchup against a Vikings club that ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed per game since Week 9. The Week 14 matchup against Buffalo should also be favorable since the Bills rank 26th in fantasy points allowed in that span.

Philadelphia Eagles

Is Quez Watkins now a viable flex candidate?

Adding Watkins to a fantasy roster seems to have merit based on his tallying 10+ points in three straight games, but the reality is over the past three weeks he ranks 42nd in wide receiver points per game. He also doesn’t catch enough passes to be considered a reliable high floor candidate in deep PPR leagues. As helpful as he has been on the field for his club, he’s just not that helpful in fantasy leagues.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Can Benny Snell Jr. equal the production level of Najee Harris if Harris is out for a while?

The key to answering this question is to point out that Harris ranks 37th out of 44 running backs in points per scrimmage play (minimum 100 plays to qualify). His 0.68 pace is much lower than Snell’s 1.15 points per play pace against the Colts on Monday night. Snell likely won’t keep that pace up, as that is higher than Austin Ekeler’s league leading 1.13-point pace, but with Harris producing as poorly as he has this year, Snell can certainly keep up at a similar or better level.

San Francisco 49ers

Are Deebo Samuel’s impact days a thing of the past?

Samuel started the 2022 campaign off on a great note by posting 11+ points in six straight games, but he has since tallied fewer than 10 points in three of his past four games.

It might seem this is nitpicking, as Samuel did post 9.4 points in Week 7 and just had a fantastic 22.4-point showing against Arizona on Monday night, but he does face red-rated cornerbacks in four of the next five weeks. Samuel has also been dealing with a hamstring issue, which may explain why he had only two catches against the Chargers in Week 10 and three against the Saints in Week 12.

Add those elements together and it might drop Samuel to the WR2 or WR3/flex tier, but if Elijah Mitchell’s knee issue keeps him out for a time and Samuel gets healthy and starts to take on more carries again, impact days will be in his future as soon as next week.

Why isn’t Jason Myers rostered in more leagues?

In general, this series adopts the Jake Ciely mindset and suggests that kickers not be a part of fantasy football leagues. Since many leagues do have exceptions to this, this series will review kickers when it is appropriate, and this is one of those cases.

Myers is one of only four kickers to post 10+ points in at least six games this season. Here is that list of kickers, along with their respective roster rates.

There is no way Myers should have a roster rate that is significantly lower than the other kickers on this list. If you are in a league that has kickers, be sure to strongly consider adding Myers to your roster, as he can be an immediate roster upgrade.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Are there any concerns about Rachaad White being able to hold up to his current workload level?

White took over as the lead back in the Tampa Bay offense in the Week 10 matchup against Seattle in Munich and carried the ball 22 times in that contest. The Buccaneers had a bye in Week 11 and then gave the ball to White 23 times in Week 12, with 14 carries and nine receptions.

White has a solid 6-foot-2, 210-pound frame, so he has the physical capacity to shoulder a strong workload, but he has next to zero track record in this area. During his two years at Arizona State, White posted 20+ scrimmage plays on six occasions, with one of those occurring against UNLV. To be fair, he did end his 2021 season with four straight games with 20+ scrimmage plays, but the reality is he has never been asked to be a bell cow for an extended period of time at the major college or NFL level.

This means fantasy managers should keep White in lineups, as bell cow backs are almost always lineup locks, but they should also have some type of backup plan in place in the event White doesn’t hold up under bell cow conditions.

Tennessee Titans

Can Treylon Burks keep this pace going?

It’s been a great return to the lineup for Burks, as over the past two weeks he has scored 35.1 points. That pace places him 16th in wide receiver points per game in that time frame, but let’s not forget that were it not for a lucky fumble recovery for a touchdown, Burks would have ranked 24th in wide receiver points per game.

That pace places him at the border of the WR2/WR3/flex tier. This is important because Burks has red-rated cornerback matchups for every single game from here on out (including Week 18 for those rare fantasy leagues that play in that week). This brutal schedule stretch indicates that he may end up being more of a flex candidate than a WR2 candidate from here on out, so adjust your rosters accordingly. He’s also worth dealing as a trade high candidate in ESPN leagues where the trade deadline is later this week.

Will Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson continue to post inconsistent fantasy point totals?

Robinson and Gibson keep alternating between strong and weak fantasy performances. The reason for this is how the Washington coaching staff divides the workload between them. Check out how this played out in Week 12.

Player	Off snaps	Pass snaps	Rush snaps	Routes	Pass block snaps
Brian Robinson	30	8	22	7	1
Antonio Gibson	24	14	10	14	0
Jonathan Williams	5	1	4	1	0

Robinson and Gibson operate as a platoon from a scrimmage play volume perspective, but Robinson definitely gets the bulk of the rushing play volume, while Gibson gets the pass play volume.

This means their fantasy value will fluctuate depending on what type of game plan Washington goes into a game with, or whichever one the club switches to depending on how the game pans out.

The bottom line here is that this tendency bakes inconsistency into the fantasy cases for Robinson and Gibson. It isn’t likely to change, so be sure to factor for a potential low floor when starting either one.

(Top photo: Al Bello/Getty Images)

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